2008 State of the Future
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xecutive
Summary
The future continues to get better for most of the world, but a series of tipping points could drastically alter global prospects.
Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions.
International Alert in the U.K. lists 102 vulnerable countries. The Center for Naval Analyses in the U.S. identifies 46 countries (2.7 billion people) at high risk of armed conflict, and an additional 56 states (1.2 billion people) at risk of political instability. By mid-2008 there were 14 wars (conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths)—one fewer than in 2007. These wars were in Africa (5), Asia (4), the Americas (2), the Middle East (2), and worldwide anti-extremism (1).
FAO estimates that 37 countries face a crisis over food due to increased demand from rapidly developing nations, high oil prices, the use of crops for biofuels, high fertilizer costs, global stocks at 25-year lows, and market speculation. Basic food prices are doubling around the world. Prices of cereals, for example, including wheat and rice, are up 129% since 2006. With nearly 3 billion people making $2 or less per day, long-term global social conflict seems inevitable without more serious food policies, useful scientific breakthroughs, and dietary changes.
However, advances in science, technology, education, economics, and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today. Consider the extraordinary waste of human talent through violence, neglect, poor education, corruption, and other forms of inhumanity. Consider the enormous waste of investments into entertainment and media focused on the worst behaviors of humanity, products that make us unhealthy, and actions that pit one group against another. Surely cutting back on such waste could release the resources and talent needed to make the world work better for all.