This book is an enticing and simplified methodology that squeezes every last drop from the KO count. A beginner shouldn’t have any problems taking the original KO count and by using the color coded “cold, hot and warm” concepts shown by Daniel to optimize their play. You’ll be playing at a skillful level just after applying the concepts that Daniel shows in the first four chapters. I simulated Daniel’s betting and playing methodology using both the original KO and his simplifications. The improvement in SCORE was almost 4%. By-the-way, I used Qfit’s CVData for the sims. Bottom line is this is a simplification of an already simple system that works well.
I’ve known Daniel for quite some time now and he not only talks the talk but walks the walk. He’s made quite a nice haul over the last few years and it’s outlined in the book. I highly recommend this book not only for new users but hard-core KO users will find it of interest also. George C ~ blackjack expert and author
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I have successfully been using KO for years and adding this simple, powerful, common-sense approach to true-counting KO has given my game new octane! This book has changed my game forever. I have read every book ever published on the subject of blackjack at least three times. This book cuts through the theoretical drudgery and gives practical advice for the player who doesn't want to wallow in the mathematical minutia, but wants to play the game! Highly recommended from a real-world player! Email from a satisfied customer
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The Color of Blackjack
by Daniel Dravot
Smashwords Edition
Copyright © 2008, Daniel Dravot
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All you need to know to extract money from a casino
My revolutionary system reduces TKO to a single chart
Easy to understand, easy to execute
Become the David against the casino Goliaths...
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This book is available in print at:
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Smashwords Edition, License Notes
This ebook is licensed for your personal enjoyment only. This ebook may not be re-sold or given away to other people. If you would like to share this book with another person, please purchase an additional copy for each person. If you’re reading this book and did not purchase it, or it was not purchased for your use only, then please return to Smashwords.com and purchase your own copy. Thank you for respecting the hard work of this author.
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Preface
1. What is Card Counting and Why Does It Work?
2. Basic Strategy and Game Selection
4. Betting: Bankroll Requirements and Bet Ramps
5. Extra Profit
7. Summary
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Preface
I wanted a sports car. Knowing nothing about engines I sought the advice of my son, an ardent car buff. I bought, with his recommended specs and because they had one in my favorite color, black.
My first test drive was over a circuitous route that took me through open country road providing long straight-aways and sharp turns. We performed beautifully.
The next day, my son came over eager to drive his recommendation. He first popped the bonnet and mumbled, “Powertrain 2.5 litre turbo charged EJ257, drivetrain, 6-speed AWD with DCCD. At 4500 RPM producing 325 WHP; 3300 RPM equals 360 foot-pounds of torque, sweeeet!”
I feigned a knowing smile.
He duplicated my drive in speed and performance and pulled into the driveway, exhilarated. My point: You don’t have to know HP from RPMs to get the most from your car.
Blackjack is similar. There are technical people. I mean gifted math scholars with a passion for game theory. They eat, breathe, sleep and obsess over every tiny detail of the game. They design systems that will beat the game and the casinos. I am in awe of and pay homage to their knowledge and skills. But when they come down from the math mountain and deliver a system to the unwashed masses, well guess what, you don’t have to be a math genius to use it! Just like the car, after technical people design and build it, ordinary people can use the system and get high performance results.
After many years of studying and playing blackjack, I have learned what is important and not important to beat the casinos. A veil of math mystery surrounds blackjack/card counting and intimidates many people, keeping them from enjoying the game. Many authors present their case in a technical way with math formulae so that you can calculate to the third decimal place – not necessary to beat a casino.
Over the last ten years, KO has won the respect of the blackjack community as being the best in combination of ease and power. Everyone knew that True-Counted KO (TKO) was even more powerful than KO, but the conversion formula was daunting:
TC = RC-4(Decks Played) / Decks Unplayed
On a plane I had my “Eureka!” moment. I calculated a few numbers, graphed them, and bingo, it came to me, a new and revolutionary way of true counting KO.
This book illuminates the concept of TKO and makes it a viable playing option.
No more division!
My system eliminates this formula.
As you will learn, my chart visualization technique keeps the easy part of KO and gives you the extra power of TKO. It also presents the player with many more early entry betting opportunities. TKO is the most powerful way to play today’s games and The Color of Blackjack presents the easiest method to achieve TKO.
So hop in and enjoy the ride!
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What is Card Counting and Why Does it Work?
Card counting is possible because of deck memory. There are 52 cards in a deck and they are all like good neighbors. If you take a trip, the neighbors know you are gone and will watch your house. If you remove an ace from the deck, the deck knows that it is gone. Now with only three aces remaining, there is less chance that a blackjack will be dealt on the next hand. The deck is screaming that less blackjacks are coming.
Contrast this with dice. They are dumb - no memory there. If you roll a five, the dice do not remember. All the spots are still there and the odds of a five on the next roll are exactly the same. That is called an independent event. Each roll is independent of the previous roll or rolls.
Blackjack is a game of dependent sequential events. The odds on the next hand are dependent on what cards have left the deck on the previous hands. That is the first element which makes card counting possible.
The fixed rules of play for the dealer are the second necessary element. The player has options but the dealer does not. If the dealer has a 16, he must hit. For the player sometimes it is correct to hit and other times stand.
The third element is bet variation. The player can bet zero, a little or a lot. The casino accepts the bet if it is within its stated minimum and maximum limits.
So, when these three elements – dependent sequential events, rules (fixed for the house and flexible for the player), and bet variations – are combined, brilliant math guys develop systems that gain an edge over the casinos. The nice thing is that you don’t have to be brilliant to use the systems once developed.
Studies determined that little cards are good for the house and big cards are good for the player. Card counting is simply keeping a running count of the balance between big and little. The big misconception is that card counters have amazing brains that remember every card dealt. Keeping the running count is quite simple as I will explain in Chapter 3.
More Blackjacks
Let’s look at a deck with a lot of tens and aces remaining. Small cards in a discard tray are shown face up for purposes of illustration.
It is obvious there is an increased probability that tens and aces will show on the next round. That means there is a greater chance for blackjacks. It is time to bet big, for example $100. Now I don’t know where blackjacks will fall, but the advantage is that blackjacks pay 3-2. We lose $100 when the dealer gets it; we make $150 when we get it. That extra $50 is part of the edge. Of course, the next five blackjacks might fall on the dealer or your undeserving neighbor. But over many thousands of hands the dealer and player will get approximately the same number of blackjacks.
Dealer Busts
Another advantage for the player is dealer busts. Here is the same exposed discard tray; small cards are gone so we bet big. The dealer has a 16. The player’s hand is not a blackjack so play continues. The player makes sure he doesn’t bust and now it is up to the dealer. The fixed rules require the dealer to hit. Look at that discard tray. The 2, 3, 4, 5 would all make a hand for the dealer. Sorry casino, they are gone.
We have our big bet out and the chances of the dealer busting are increased on this 16. But it’s not just 16, anytime the dealer has a stiff – that is a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 – his chance of busting increases. The player’s hand doesn’t matter. Dealer busting is another part of the edge to card counting.
Split/Double Down/Strategy Gain
Another advantage is that big cards help the player when he has to split or double down. And lastly there is something called strategy gain, which is a slight modification to basic strategy when we know the deck is rich with tens.
These are the reasons that we make more money when we count cards. Now let’s see how we lose less by counting.
Lose Less
What an ugly discard tray.
It’s filled with tens and an ace. Less blackjacks will be dealt and the small cards are still in the deck. That means the dealer will make more hands when we need him to bust. The house has a huge advantage. Time to bet zero or the minimum and we lose less in the long run.
That’s it. We keep track of big and small cards, and bet more or less depending on the balance between the two.
Now let’s get behind the wheel and learn how to drive.
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Basic Strategy and Game Selection
Before you delve into card counting you must understand the fundamentals of winning blackjack. They consist of optimal playing strategies and game selection. This is the foundation from which you can achieve the gain of card counting.
Most people don’t even know basic strategy. This tells me that the existing methods of learning basic strategy are not effective. I have an alternative way of mastering blackjack basic strategy.
In the 1960s mathematicians worked tirelessly running billion-hand computer simulations to arrive at the optimum decision matrix. Given any player’s hand against a dealer up card, they determined what decision maximizes wins and minimizes losses.
Let me give you some examples:
14 vs dealer 9
On balance this hand is a loser. The strategy is to lose as little as possible. Standing, which tempts those who fear busting, will on average end up losing 54% of the amount bet. Hitting will result in a long term loss of 43% of the amount bet. Losing less is just as important as winning more. Hitting is the proper play.
16 vs dealer 6
Hitting loses 43% of the amount bet while standing loses only 15%. Standing loses less and it is the correct decision.
This type of analysis gave birth to basic strategy.
Basic strategy is now a generic formula in the gambling business. Every professional gambler knows it perfectly. Any deviation in the long run will cost you money.
Basic strategy is the key to winning Blackjack.
You think you play a decent game. You’re pretty good at basic strategy and generally play like most other players. And worst of all, you deviate based on hunches or feelings. Let’s take a look at what that costs.
Get the picture? You must play perfect basic strategy if you are to have any chance at all. Most people don’t, and that tells me they look at the traditional basic strategy chart and their eyes just glaze over. Mine did too. Then I organized the chart and memorized it like phone numbers. Remember those days? Cell phones have freed up brain cells for other uses. Learn each line like a phone number or a line from a song. Today if I see a 12 anywhere, I automatically think “stay 4 - 6 otherwise hit.” The Generic Basic Strategy Table serves players well for all games. The gain from learning a slightly different strategy for single and multi-deck is so minimal, it is not worth the effort.
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Basic Strategy for specific rules
If Surrender is available:
Su 16 vs dealer 9, 10, A
Su 15 vs dealer 10
If Double After Splitting (DAS) is not permitted:
do not split 6,6 vs dealer 2
do not split 4,4 vs dealer 5 or 6
do not split 3,3 vs dealer 2 or 3
do not split 2,2 vs dealer 2 or 3
Special rules for a single deck game:
stand on 7,7 vs dealer 10
stand if you draw out 4,5,6 to a dealer 10
The single deck exceptions should be obvious, because some of the cards that could help you have been used. You are in a bad situation and it is best to hope for the dealer to bust.
Well now that you have seen basic strategy, it’s important to learn it. To learn anything, it’s easier if you understand and believe in it. The following explanation may help you see some of the reasons for the basic strategy chart.
Players Have Trouble with the A,7 vs Dealer 9, 10, A
An 18 appears to be a good hand and people will usually stand. They reason, why possibly ruin a good hand. The answer is, it’s not a good hand against those dealer cards.
Look at a dealer 9. There are 13 possible cards under that 9. The ace gives the dealer a 20, and four chances for a 10 gives the dealer a 19. So right at the start, you have lost five times. A 9 gives you a push, and only an 8 will give you a win. So with seven possible cards, you have five losses, one tie, and one win. To list every combination is foolish. That’s why we have computers.
Now let’s hit your A,7 as basic strategy requires. An ace, 2, or 3 improves your hand and a 10 leaves it the same. If you draw a 6 for example, and make a 14, you can hit again. You will make a good hand on about half of those draws. In summary, look at the following:
If you fail to hit A,7 vs dealer 9, your loss is -8.00%
If you fail to hit A,7 vs dealer 10, your loss is -4.00%
If you fail to hit A,7 vs dealer A, your loss is -0.37%
If you fly on an airplane, cross a bridge, or ride in an elevator, you trust the math. Winning blackjack is all about math. Trust it. Hit your A,7 vs dealer 9, 10, A.
A Big Mistake is Failure to Split 8,8 vs 7
It is easy to see this error intuitively. It’s about the ten card. Hitting this hand loses 40.8%, while splitting wins 31.9%. That is a huge 72.7% difference. Knowing and making the right decision will mean a savings of $72 on a $100 bet. God’s holy trousers!
Splitting 8,8 vs 10
Yet another difficult hand for most people to play correctly. You are in trouble with this hand, no doubt, but you can’t avoid it. If you play blackjack, you’re going to have to deal with it. So do the right thing. Split, and you only lose $48 per $100. If you chicken out and just hit the 8,8; you lose $54.
Game Selection - House Edge Calculations
You have to first hurdle the house edge before you can make any money. Within a casino there can be many tables, each with different rules. The average player haphazardly picks a table, yet an adjacent table may offer a much better game. In order to calculate the house edge on a game, we need to have a starting point/baseline. It is generally the following:
Baseline: Single deck; double down on any first two cards; one card on split aces; dealer stands on soft 17; no surrender. The approximate edge on this game is -0.02%. We start there and add or subtract the following conditions.
When you find a game, you calculate the house edge as follows:
In Example Three, compare the 6-5 single deck house edge to the 6 deck game in Example Two. God’s holy trousers! People refused to play this bad game in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and the 90s. The casinos pulled it, but they keep sneaking it back, hoping to catch new suckers. It’s tragic that people play it now. Let me tell you, casino execs have absolute contempt for their customers. Wal-Mart wants you to leave feeling that you received a fair value, and casino execs laugh and say their customers are dumb enough to play this rip-off game. Of course, you are an informed consumer. You are doing research. That is how I learned; how everybody learns.
Spread the word:
Friends don’t let friends play 6-5 single deck.
Look how much you have learned over a typical player who would select a bad game with a 1.0% house edge, and play imperfect basic strategy. He ends up giving the house 3% or 4% and does not have a prayer. With these methods you can select a good game, play perfect basic strategy, and only give up 0.5%. You are playing so close to 50-50 that normal fluctuations will give you many winning sessions. With comps, coupons, cash backs, and bonus money you can have hours of entertainment for much less than a dinner and a movie.
Even without card counting, just using the knowledge in this chapter will allow you to play with the least amount of casino edge.
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Let’s Get Counting! Card Tags and Running Count
The secrets and mysteries of card counting are contained in this chapter. Most people say that they can never remember all of the cards dealt, and they just chalk it off as something that only exceptionally bright kids can do. Fortunately, brilliant inventors of card counting came up with a simple way to keep track of the cards. (Remember that small cards left in the deck benefit the house; and if big cards remain in the deck, the player has an advantage.) The solution was to find a way to measure the balance between small versus big. The first step is to assign each card in the deck a value. These values are called card tags.
We use the tags in the KO system (Knock-Out Blackjack). It is called an unbalanced count because we count more small cards than big cards. Note that the small cards are valued as a plus, and if more of them are dealt, the count will go up. This is referred to as a deck going positive, which is good for the player. A negative deck occurs when more big cards are dealt, and that is bad for the player.