Mastering the Techniques of Lottery Playing
How to Improve Your Odds at Scratch Off and Draw Games
By
Jared Simpson
Smashwords Edition
******
Published by:
Jared Simpson on Smashwords
Mastering the Techniques of Lottery Playing
How to Improve Your Odds at Scratch Off and Draw Games
Copyright 2011 by Jared Simpson
Cover Artwork by: Anna Simpson
Cover Design by Jared & Anna Simpson
ISBN 978-1-4660-1383-4
This ebook is licensed for your personal enjoyment only. This ebook may not be re-sold or given away to other people. If you would like to share this book with another person, please purchase an additional copy for each person you share it with. If you’re reading this book and did not purchase it, or it was not purchased for your use only, then you should return to Smashwords.com and purchase your own copy. Thank you for respecting the author’s work.
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Ch. 1 - Becoming a Winner – One Way or Another
Ch. 2 - How to be a Winner – Not an Addict
Ch. 3 - Tracking & Its Importance: How to Protect Your Wealth
Ch. 4 - Scratch Off Games vs. Draw Games
Ch. 5 - Improving Your Odds: Scratch Off Games
Ch. 6 - Improving Your Odds: Draw Games
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The information in this book is meant to give you a better understanding of how lottery games work and how to analyze and choose the “better” game using statistics. I cannot claim to have made X number of people millionaires and unfortunately cannot make that promise to you, either. It is important to emphasize that the lottery is about luck, not skill. I believe that the odds of winning a game can be improved using simple math formulas, however, this improvement is by no means a guarantee and abusing the calculated “new odds” can have a damaging effect.
If there is one thing you should keep in mind it is this:
The Lottery Is a Game Of Chance.
No matter how “good” your set of lottery numbers are, no matter how “good” the odds of a particular game are or have become, and no matter how many tickets you buy, the lottery is still a game of chance.
We can all probably recall reading an article in the newspaper or online about a person who randomly bought a ticket with no intention or knowledge of the payout potential, and won thousands or millions of dollars. Why are there so many stories like this? Because the lottery is a game of chance. “Random Luck” is the name of the game.
I hope from this book you will learn techniques that can help you save money, improve your lottery odds, and most of all, realize that the lottery is a game of chance, with the odds always against you.
It is important to believe in yourself and trust your instincts. Separating fantasy from reality will help protect your assets, your loved ones, and yourself from turning an act of good intention into a gambling addiction that can destroy your life. If this is happening to you now, please do not hesitate to seek help. It is not just for you but your whole family.
My goal is for everyone who reads this book to become a smarter lottery player, lose any gambling mentality they might currently possess, and most of all, learn how to increase their chances of winning!
Good Luck!
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BECOMING A WINNER – ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
I believe being a winner, both in life and in the lottery requires some degree of discipline. Purely in the spectrum of the lottery, this means having clear goals and sticking to them. Once these goals are in place and understood, we are less likely to drift in the wrong direction.
Here are some goals I feel will help you:
Be Realistic
Stick to your goals and be disciplined. Realize that no matter what magic system you are using, the odds of winning the big prize are still steep. Be happy when you win a small prize and don’t be tempted to buy more tickets with those winnings. Realize that you will probably lose more money than you win, so play smart. It is also important to understand that buying more and more tickets does not give you a better chance of winning. The odds are still against you.
Minimize Lottery Losses
Realize that the most you can lose is what you spend in a year. If you buy $300 worth of tickets in a year, this is your maximum loss. Any winnings will help reduce your yearly costs. Minimizing lottery losses will give you more money to spend and invest in other places. The best way to minimize losses is to stick with a budget and never reinvest your lottery winnings – take the cash instead. The next two chapters go into more detail regarding minimizing losses and maximizing gains.
Go for the Big Prize
This is a debatable goal and I am not trying to convert anyone into a big prize game player. The purpose of playing the lottery should be to achieve wealth, knowing full well that it is a game of chance. With that said, why risk $1 trying to win a Top Prize of $1,000, when for that same $1 risk, you have a chance to win hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions? Sure, the odds are much greater for the million dollar prize, but how far are we going to get with $1,000, less taxes? (See Chapter 8, Lottery vs. Casino for a more in-depth look). If we use some simple techniques, we can even improve our odds of winning the Top Prize.
Become a Winner
Being a winner does not mean you have to win the million dollar prize. I believe it is the small achievements we should also value. For instance, if you set a maximum amount to spend on the lottery per week and stick to that budget the entire year, you are a winner. If you are able to win more than you spend in a year, which is more difficult than you might imagine, you are a winner. And if luck is on your side, you may even win the big prize.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
• Realize that the lottery is a game of luck.
• Be disciplined and stick to your budget.
• Take cash and not more tickets.
• Be realistic and realize small gains help offset losing weeks.
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HOW TO BE A WINNER – NOT AN ADDICT
I want everyone to become a Winner and not a “Lottery Addict.” As discussed in the previous chapter, this requires discipline. It is easy to become arrogant and blind to reality when you are on a winning streak. On the other hand, if you are down and out, you may overplay and overpay to get out of your current situation. Both of these scenarios can turn you into an addict as emotions rule your thinking. When your emotions are out of control, things become distorted and it is not until later that you realize your mistakes.
The best way to avoid becoming a “Lottery Addict” is to make a plan – and stick with it.
A plan disengages emotions and helps you act more rationally. Below are some methods and information to help keep you on the right path. Chapter 3, which discusses tracking, is probably the most important tool you can use to stay focused.
Making the Right Decisions:
Choose a Budget
You should first consider if you can afford to play the lottery. Your priorities should be family, food, bills, etc. If all of your priorities are taken care of and you can afford to play the lottery, the next step is to choose the maximum amount of money you can and are willing to part with per week. If you decide on a $10 weekly lottery budget, stick with that amount. That means if you decide that a $20 ticket is your best bet, you can only buy one ticket every other week. Don’t make exceptions. If you need the lottery money for other things, they should become your priority. Your lottery money should be the first thing sacrificed if faced with a financial obligation.
To Play or Not to Play
If it appears there are no good opportunities at the present moment, don’t force it. There is nothing wrong with skipping weeks or months of playing. Put the money aside and budget it for future weeks, use the money and treat your family to dinner, or invest in Stocks, Bonds or a Savings Account. There is no sense in throwing good money away. The old adage applies here; “A dollar saved is a dollar earned.”
Realize that the Lottery is a Game of Luck
Whether the odds are in your favor or not, the lottery is a game of luck. The person in front of you or behind you may purchase the winning ticket – or a person 200 miles away may purchase the winning ticket at 3:00 a.m. while you sleep. You don’t have control over these circumstances and buying two tickets instead of one will not change the outcome.
Maximize Gains & Minimize Losses
Some themes repeat throughout this book – which is not by chance. They are worth repeating. You should have a goal to maximize your gains and minimize your losses. Doing so is not simple as some methods seem counterintuitive.
First, realize that buying more and more tickets will likely do the opposite of what we are trying to achieve. You will more than likely Maximize your Losses and Minimize your Gains. Stick with your budget. Don’t buy 100 tickets for the big $100,000,000 jackpot because your hundred tickets are a spec of dust compared to the 1:175,000,000 jackpot odds.
Second, if you win a prize, opt for cash, not more tickets. This allows you to offset previous week’s losses and get you closer to a break-even year or even better, a winning year.
So Close…
Don’t be fooled by Scratch Off tickets that are one number away from the Top Prize. It does not mean the next ticket is any closer to the winning ticket; it’s just a gimmick to make you come back and play again.
Tracking Your Results
Tracking is discussed in detail in the following chapter. Tracking removes the guesswork as to how well you have done with the lottery over a specific time period. Tracking can also be used for other things in life, such as weekly and monthly budgeting. You may be surprised how much you spend a month on certain items and how much you can save.
Where to Play
Play your Scratch Off ticket(s) at home. This will prevent you from:
• Being tempted to buy another ticket if you lose.
• Being tempted to cash in a winning ticket for more tickets.
Choosing a Game
• You don’t have to be faithful to just one game – play the one that has better odds, a better payout, or the one your gut tells you to play.
• Cost/Reward – $20 for a $20,000 Top Prize might be too pricy compared to a $3 Win for Life game or a $10 $1,000,000 game (Chapter 7).
• Choose a game that has better odds of winning the Top Prize or that has better calculated odds (Chapter 5).
• You may want to consider the odds and payout of lesser prizes, though the main focus should be on the Top Prize.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
• Choose a weekly budget and stick to it.
• You and your family come first.
• Don’t feel obligated to play every week.
• Realize the lottery is a game of luck.
• Maximize gains and Minimize losses.
• Track your results! (Chapter 3).
• Play Scratch Off games at home – not in the store.
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TRACKING & ITS IMPORTANCE:
HOW TO PROTECT YOUR WEALTH
Tracking your lottery costs and winnings is essential because it is the TRUE measure of how well or poorly you are doing. You cannot fool the numbers, unless you decide to manipulate your own records.
Tracking your results takes almost no time and is very simple. All you need is:
• A Journal or Excel spreadsheet
• Name of the ticket purchased
• Cost of the ticket purchased
• Amount won (if any)
• Date ticket was purchased
EXAMPLE:
The spreadsheet in Figure 3-1 shows the formulas needed to track your ticket purchases and wins in an Excel spreadsheet. (You may also download a copy of this tracking spreadsheet, as well as other pre-formulated spreadsheets from my website, www.lottoscratchgames.com).
Figure 3-1
1. Adds the cost of all tickets purchased.
2. Adds all of your winnings.
3. Subtracts your winnings from your cost. A loss may show the numbers in brackets (), depending on your Excel settings.
HINT: To add more rows to your spreadsheet, simply right click on the row above the black line (row 7 in Figure 3-1) and select “Insert.” The new row(s) should automatically be added to the formulas. To check if a formula is accounting for the new row(s), click on the cell with the formula (for example, cell “E9” from Figure 3-1) and make sure the formula is referencing all of the cells you want it to reference. If not, you can simply edit the formula and enter the correct row number.
Tracking in Action:
Figure 3-2 shows an example of three games I entered into a tracking spreadsheet. When the ticket costs were entered into the Excel cells, the formula in the “Totals” cell automatically added the cost of all three tickets and gave me the total cost, in this case, $35.
The same happened when I entered the $50 win in the “Amount Won” column, except the total is calculated in cell (F9).
The “Gain/Loss” cell (E11) then subtracts the $50 winnings from the cost of all tickets purchased, $35, to give us a Total Gain of $15.
By tracking our results and staying disciplined, we won’t be fooled into thinking we made $50; instead, we can clearly see that we have spent $35 from 7/25/2010 through 8/12/2010 and won $50, netting a gain of $15.
Figure 3-2
If we are not disciplined and instead of taking the $50 as cash, we decide to purchase $50 worth of lottery tickets with our winnings, here is what can happen:
Figure 3-3
In a worse-case but highly probable scenario, the $50 was used to purchase two more $20 Money Jackpot tickets and one $10 1,000,000 Jackpot ticket. All three tickets were losers and we have now lost $35 for this three week period instead of having a $15 gain.
To put it another way, if we follow this pattern every time we have a winning ticket, we are ALWAYS going to have a negative total in the Gain/Loss field, pending a large winning ticket. If we plan to spend $800 a year on tickets, that is how much we are going to lose. If we keep some of the winnings, our yearly loss will be no more than $800 and we have a chance of showing a number such as -$200, -$400, or even a positive number in the Gain/Loss column for the year.
Tracking Lessons:
Small Prizes = Bait
Small prizes are bait to keep you playing. They distort the reality of your actual winnings. Small prizes are good for offsetting previous week’s losses and should be cashed in rather than used to purchase additional tickets. Remember, a small prize is better than a losing ticket. However, winning double your money may make you feel like you are beating the game, but tracking your winnings may prove differently.
Distorted Reality
Since the human mind has a tendency to distort reality, it is essential that we track our results.
For instance, in 2010 I had a $200 Scratch Off winner on a $20 game. I was thrilled to have won 10X my money. I cheerfully added the $200 winning ticket to my spreadsheet. On closer inspection, however, I noticed that after 6 months of playing Scratch Off tickets my “Gain/Loss” column was at break even and not +$200.
In other words, had I not tracked my ticket costs and wins, I may have thought I had big gains for the year by not factoring in all of the losing weeks. I stuck with my plan and took the $200 prize as cash instead of more tickets. By doing so I achieved my goal of maximizing gains and minimizing losses on my quest for riches.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
• Tracking is the only true measure of how well you have done over a particular time period.
• Visit my website for a downloadable tracking spreadsheet.
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SCRATCH OFF GAMES VS. DRAW GAMES
There are a number of differences between Scratch Off games and Draw games. These games, however, do share some common characteristics. As with any form of gambling, the odds are in favor of the agency and not the player. Scratch Off and Draw games both offer small and large jackpot games. In addition, both games are in existence to generate income for the state(s), not to make the average person wealthy.
While Scratch Off games and Draw games have obvious differences, some of these differences can be argued as favorable or unfavorable, depending on the viewpoint taken.
For many years my personal view was that Scratch Off games were a waste of money and the only way to play the lottery was to buy Draw game tickets. My perspective changed a couple years ago when I began to explore the odds of Scratch Off games vs. Draw games.
Though my personal bias now leans more towards Scratch Off games, I try to give each type of game a fair evaluation. I believe that individually there are good and bad games in each category, which is why it is important to analyze games and play the Scratch Off and Draw games that appear to be the best bet.
Evaluation:
Instant Gratification
Scratch Off games offer instant gratification, which can be a very dangerous aspect. This is where tracking and discipline are vital. (Think of it in terms of a slot machine, where you can keep playing and playing until your pockets are empty).
Prizes – Draw Games
Draw games can have huge prizes. Unfortunately, many times the lesser prizes and overall odds of winning a prize are high, making it hard to recover your cost. One advantage some Draw games have is an increasing jackpot.
Prizes – Scratch Off Games
Scratch Off games range from very small Top Prizes to million dollar prizes. One advantage of Scratch Off games is the ease of winning small prizes, whereby you can recover your initial cost. Many times the overall odds of winning are 1:3 or 1:4.
Cost
Draw games offer the chance to win million-dollar jackpots for a dollar or two. To win a similar prize with a Scratch Off ticket, you may need to lay down $10, $20 or $30 for one chance.
Odds
Despite Draw game’s large jackpots, the odds of winning are much steeper than the more expensive Scratch Off games. Scratch Off games, however, can also have fairly high odds, depending on the game.
“Improving” Odds
Scratch Off games usually have a predetermined number of tickets issued. For each ticket that is not a Top Prize winner, the odds of winning the Top Prize increase by one.
For Example, suppose there are 3,000,000 tickets issued and 1,000,000 have been sold without a Top Prize winner. When you purchase a ticket your odds have improved because there are only 2,000,000 issued tickets remaining. Chapter 5 discusses ways to calculate the changing odds of Scratch Off games.
Draw games “reset” each game. For Example, if the odds are 1:3,000,000 and there were 1,000,000 tickets sold without a Top Prize winner, the next drawing’s odds will once again be 1:3,000,000.
Chance vs. Set Number of Winners (Predetermined)
Draw games are purely chance, whereby in a drawing there may be three Top Prize winners or none at all. The same goes for all of the lesser prizes (the number of winners of each prize will vary for every drawing).
Scratch Off games, on the other hand, have a predetermined number of winners (though a game may end with unsold winning tickets). With Scratch Off games, there are X number of Top Prizes in the game, X number of second prizes, etc.
Choice of Numbers
Draw games offer two choices; “Choose Your Own Numbers” or “Quick Pick” (random set of numbers). The disadvantage of choosing your own set of numbers is the feeling of obligation. You may fear that your numbers will be drawn on the week you decide not to play, therefore you never miss a drawing. This is possible but not very probable.
The advantage of choosing your own set of numbers is the control you have over the number combination. This is discussed more in Chapter 6.
Choice of Prize
Scratch Off and Draw games offer a variety of prize levels through various games. Draw games typically offer these choices by varying the odds of the Top Prize. Scratch Off games offer a choice of prizes by varying both the cost of each ticket and the odds of the Top Prize.
Additional Bets
Scratch Off games may offer more than one game on a ticket. Multiple games on a ticket are factored into the overall odds and are more or less a gimmick. The same goes for “Bonus” boxes. If you see there are 1,000,000 $10 prizes, this typically includes the combination of all games on the ticket, including Bonus boxes.
Some Draw games offer players the chance to increase their odds of winning by offering an extra number. This option, of course, costs more money and may or may not be worth playing.